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Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1/4/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 17Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hapoel Haifa44%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Petah Tikva30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Haifa
1.46
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.15

Hapoel Haifa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.34
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94

allows per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.36
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.57

finishing

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par
Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Haifa ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Haifa or draw
70%
Hapoel Haifa or Maccabi Petah Tikva
74%
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
22%
Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
77%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
43%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
18%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
32%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
60%
Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Haifa at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.36 · 123 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.34 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Haifa scores more
44%
level
26%
Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
30%

Hapoel Haifa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Haifa 5–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Haifa beat Maccabi Petah Tikva 5-1 in Ligat Ha'al on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.