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Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Bnei Sakhnin — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
1/14/2025State CupState Cup · Round of 16HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva49%
×Draw26%
Bnei Sakhnin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.50
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.40
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.40
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw
75%
Maccabi Petah Tikva or Bnei Sakhnin
74%
Draw or Bnei Sakhnin
51%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
25%
Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
78%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
44%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
19%
Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
63%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
26%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
66%
Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.40 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bnei Sakhnin attack 1.60 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
49%
level
26%
Bnei Sakhnin scores more
25%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–1 Bnei Sakhnin

Maccabi Petah Tikva and Bnei Sakhnin drew 1-1 in State Cup on January 14, 2025.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.