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Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Bnei Sakhnin — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
12/14/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 14HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva40%
×Draw28%
Bnei Sakhnin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Bnei Sakhnin
1.10

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 15% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.15
Bnei Sakhnin
0.91

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.30
Bnei Sakhnin
1.37

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw
68%
Maccabi Petah Tikva or Bnei Sakhnin
72%
Draw or Bnei Sakhnin
60%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
18%
Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
72%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
36%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
13%
Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
67%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
30%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
55%
Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.15 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.91 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
40%
level
28%
Bnei Sakhnin scores more
32%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–1 Bnei Sakhnin

Maccabi Petah Tikva and Bnei Sakhnin drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.