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Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
8/24/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 1Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin40%
×Draw28%
Maccabi Petah Tikva32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.25
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.10

Bnei Sakhnin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.93
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.26
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.57

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
68%
Bnei Sakhnin or Maccabi Petah Tikva
72%
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva
60%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
17%
Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
71%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
36%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
13%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
67%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
30%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
55%
Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
40%
level
28%
Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
32%

Bnei Sakhnin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

Bnei Sakhnin beat Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.