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Maccabi Ironi Tamra vs Hapoel Herzliya — League #496 2026

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
FT
1 – 0
Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya
2/23/2021League #496League #496 · North A - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra36%
×Draw32%
Hapoel Herzliya32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
0.96
Hapoel Herzliya
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.11
Hapoel Herzliya
1.00

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
0.78
Hapoel Herzliya
0.80

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par
Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Tamra ↓

Hapoel Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Tamra or draw
68%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra or Hapoel Herzliya
68%
Draw or Hapoel Herzliya
64%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+
13%
Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals
62%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals
25%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals
7%
Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals
59%
Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals
22%
Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)
53%
Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Hapoel Herzliya away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.11 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Hapoel Herzliya attack 1.00 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more
36%
level
32%
Hapoel Herzliya scores more
32%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Tamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1–0 Hapoel Herzliya

Maccabi Ironi Tamra beat Hapoel Herzliya 1-0 in League #496 on February 23, 2021.