Hapoel Herzliya 0–2 Maccabi Ironi Tamra

Hapoel Herzliya

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

2/25/2022

League #496 · North - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Herzliya23%

×Draw28%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HerzliyaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Ironi Tamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.35

Hapoel Herzliya

0.82

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

1.35

Maccabi Ironi Tamra creates 65% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

0.83

creates per match

1.36

1.33

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Hapoel Herzliya

0.83

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

1.36

allows per match

Hapoel Herzliya

1.33

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par

Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Herzliya ↓

Maccabi Ironi Tamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hapoel Herzliya or draw

51%

Hapoel Herzliya or Maccabi Ironi Tamra

72%

Draw or Maccabi Ironi Tamra

77%

Winning margin

Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+

7%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals

56%

Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals

20%

Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals

5%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals

74%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals

39%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)

32%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Herzliya at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Herzliya attack 0.83 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.36 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hapoel Herzliya scores more

23%

level

28%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more

49%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Tamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff