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Hapoel Herzliya vs Maccabi Ironi Tamra — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya
FT
1 – 2
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
8/31/2021State CupState Cup · Liga Alef - 5th RoundMunicipal Stadium Herzliya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Herzliya40%
×Draw21%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Herzliya
2.00
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Herzliya
1.67
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.00

allows per match

Hapoel Herzliya
3.00
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
2.33

finishing

Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par
Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Herzliya ↓

Maccabi Ironi Tamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hapoel Herzliya or draw
60%
Hapoel Herzliya or Maccabi Ironi Tamra
79%
Draw or Maccabi Ironi Tamra
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+
22%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals
86%
Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals
59%
Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals
32%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals
86%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals
59%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)
50%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Herzliya at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Herzliya attack 1.67 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.00 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Herzliya scores more
40%
level
21%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more
40%

Hapoel Herzliya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Herzliya vs Maccabi Ironi Tamra

Maccabi Ironi Tamra beat Hapoel Herzliya 2-1 in State Cup on August 31, 2021.

The match was played at Municipal Stadium Herzliya in Herzliya.