Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–5 Beitar Jerusalem

Maccabi Bnei Raina

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Beitar Jerusalem

4/10/2025

State Cup · Semi-finalsBloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina18%

×Draw21%

Beitar Jerusalem60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Bnei RainaExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.00

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.00

Beitar Jerusalem

2.00

Beitar Jerusalem creates 100% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

2.11

1.89

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.22

Beitar Jerusalem

2.11

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.89

Beitar Jerusalem

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw

40%

Maccabi Bnei Raina or Beitar Jerusalem

79%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

82%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+

6%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals

63%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals

26%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals

8%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

86%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

59%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)

23%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.22 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Beitar Jerusalem attack 2.11 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more

18%

level

21%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

60%

Beitar Jerusalem at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff