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Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
9/28/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 5Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina27%
×Draw25%
Beitar Jerusalem49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.14
Beitar Jerusalem
1.64

Beitar Jerusalem creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 120 away

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.94
Beitar Jerusalem
1.57

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.70
Beitar Jerusalem
1.33

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par
Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw
51%
Maccabi Bnei Raina or Beitar Jerusalem
75%
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem
73%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
10%
Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
32%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
11%
Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
81%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
49%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
35%
Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.70 · 67 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 0.94 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
27%
level
25%
Beitar Jerusalem scores more
49%

Beitar Jerusalem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Beitar Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem beat Maccabi Bnei Raina 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.