Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Bnei Raina — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 68+ matches
Beitar Jerusalem43%
Maccabi Bnei Raina31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Beitar Jerusalem creates 22% more chances
Season form · 106 home / 68 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Beitar Jerusalem ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches
Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.42 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42
Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Beitar Jerusalem at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Hapoel Beer ShevaBeitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
AshdodMaccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Beitar Jerusalem host Maccabi Bnei Raina on Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 17:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Ligat Ha'al: Beitar Jerusalem 1–0 Maccabi Bnei Raina
Beitar Jerusalem beat Maccabi Bnei Raina 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 10, 2026.
Goals: T. Muzie (33').
The match was played at Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem.