Luton 1–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

C. Morris 45+2'

E. Embleton 78'

10/29/2022

Championship · Round 18Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton44%

×Draw27%

Sunderland29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.03

Luton

1.35

Sunderland

1.03

Luton creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

1.39

creates per match

1.14

0.93

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Sunderland

1.32

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

71%

Luton or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

56%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

21%

Sunderland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

74%

Luton 2+ goals

39%

Luton 3+ goals

15%

Sunderland 1+ goals

64%

Sunderland 2+ goals

28%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

61%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Luton scores more

44%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

29%

Luton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Embleton

Sunderland · M

7.7

Match Events

23'

Alfie Doughty

24'

Corry Evans

30'

L. Freeman← H. Lansbury

33'

Amari'i Bell

45+2'

C. Morris↳ A. Doughty

61'

P. Roberts← L. Dajaku

61'

E. Embleton← A. Pritchard

61'

É. Michut← D. Neil

63'

Dennis Cirkin

71'

P. Mpanzu← A. Doughty

71'

H. Cornick← C. Morris

71'

E. Simms← C. Evans

72'

S. Bradley← A. Campbell

78'

E. Embleton↳ J. Clarke

85'

C. Jerome← E. Adebayo

90+2'

Jack Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonSunderland

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots16

8Corners5

18Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots16

3On Target4

6Off Target7

6Blocked5

9Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

262Total Passes399

165Accurate Passes298

63%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Luton vs Sunderland

Luton and Sunderland drew 1-1 in Championship on October 29, 2022.

Goals: C. Morris (45+2'), E. Embleton (78').

Sunderland controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.

Luton vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Luton vs Sunderland