Luton 1–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sunderland

M. Pearson 68'

J. Maja 45'

8/11/2018

League One · Round 2Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton48%

×Draw25%

Sunderland27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.11

Luton

1.56

Sunderland

1.11

Luton creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 86 away

2.04

creates per match

1.30

0.93

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Luton

2.04

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luton+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Luton or draw

73%

Luton or Sunderland

75%

Draw or Sunderland

52%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

24%

Sunderland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

79%

Luton 2+ goals

46%

Luton 3+ goals

21%

Sunderland 1+ goals

67%

Sunderland 2+ goals

30%

Sunderland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

64%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Luton scores more

48%

level

25%

Sunderland scores more

27%

Luton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Adam Matthews

45'

J. Maja↳ L. Gooch

54'

L. Cattermole← B. Mumba

56'

60'

61'

66'

68'

85'

87'

89'

J. Jervis← E. Lee

90'

Glenn Loovens

90+2'

L. Molyneux← L. Gooch

Luton

Sunderland

1

4

3

2

15

37

▼

Mumba

27

Power

11

A

▼

Gooch

10

Honeyman

7

Maguire

20

⚽

▼

1

44

3

6

⚽

Pearson

18

▼

4

17

7

9

19

▼

Collins

10

▼

Lee

Manager: N. Jones

66'▲H. Cornick←▼J. Grant

87'▲G. Rea←▼J. Collins

89'▲J. Jervis←▼E. Lee

Luton substitutes

14Cornick16Rea15Jervis2Justin5Bradley11Shinnie36Shea

Manager: J. Ross

54'▲L. Cattermole←▼B. Mumba

85'▲L. O'Nien←▼J. Maja

90+2'▲L. Molyneux←▼L. Gooch

Sunderland substitutes

6Cattermole13O'Nien35Molyneux5Öztürk25Ruiter29Embleton33Hume