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Luton vs Preston — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Preston
Preston
J. Collins 66', 29', 20'
12/12/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton50%
×Draw26%
Preston24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.50
Preston
0.96

Luton creates 56% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 60 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Preston
0.99

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Preston
1.62

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
76%
Luton or Preston
74%
Draw or Preston
50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
25%
Preston wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
78%
Luton 2+ goals
44%
Luton 3+ goals
19%
Preston 1+ goals
62%
Preston 2+ goals
25%
Preston 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
67%
Preston (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Preston attack 0.99 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more
50%
level
26%
Preston scores more
24%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. CollinsLutonLuton · F
9.5

Match Events

20'
J. Collins↳ P. Ruddock
29'
J. Collins↳ G. Rea
46'
D. Johnson← R. Ledson
46'
J. Storey← P. Huntington
57'
E. Riis← J. Stockley
57'
S. Maguire← T. Barkhuizen
60'
T. Bayliss← B. Potts
66'
J. Collins↳ H. Cornick
74'
R. Norrington-Davies← G. Moncur
75'
J. Clark← H. Cornick
80'
L. Berry← K. Dewsbury-Hall
80'
R. Tunnicliffe← P. Ruddock
83'
S. Nombe← J. Collins

Possession

46%Luton

Shots

19Luton

Pass accuracy

50%Luton

Statistics

LutonPreston
Overview
46%Possession54%
19Total Shots4
10Corners4
16Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots4
5On Target1
10Off Target3
4Blocked0
8Inside Box3
11Outside Box1
Passing
46%Possession54%
291Total Passes357
186Accurate Passes224
64%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls7
0Offsides2

Luton 3 – 0 Preston

Luton beat Preston 3-0 in Championship on December 12, 2020.

Goals: J. Collins (20', 29', 66').

Preston controlled possession (54%) and registered 4 shots to 19.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.