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Luton vs Derby — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
D. Hylton 67'
2/26/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton45%
×Draw28%
Derby27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.35
Derby
0.97

Luton creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 45 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Derby
1.32

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
73%
Luton or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
55%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
21%
Derby wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
74%
Luton 2+ goals
39%
Luton 3+ goals
15%
Derby 1+ goals
62%
Derby 2+ goals
25%
Derby 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
63%
Derby (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Derby attack 1.01 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luton scores more
45%
level
28%
Derby scores more
27%

Luton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
K. BielikDerbyDerby · M
7.5

Match Events

51'
D. Hylton← H. Lansbury
52'
Reece Burke
59'
C. Jerome← H. Cornick
66'
F. Ebosele← M. Bird
67'
D. Hylton↳ C. Jerome
72'
Cameron Jerome
73'
L. Plange← C. Forsyth
77'
Colin Kazim-Richards
78'
F. Onyedinma← E. Adebayo
84'
M. Ebiowei← J. Knight
90+3'
Malcolm Ebiowei

Possession

53%Luton

Shots

8Luton

Pass accuracy

50%Luton

Statistics

LutonDerby
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Total Shots5
7Corners4
13Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots5
4On Target1
3Off Target4
1Blocked0
6Inside Box2
2Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
359Total Passes321
226Accurate Passes198
63%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Luton vs Derby

Luton beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on February 26, 2022.

Goals: D. Hylton (67').

Luton controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.