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Derby vs Luton — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Luton
Luton
J. Knight 60'
T. Lawrence 20'
E. Adebayo 83'
F. Onyedinma 48'
10/19/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Derby48%
×Draw27%
Luton25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.41
Luton
0.93

Derby creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 21 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Luton
1.59

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
75%
Derby or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
52%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
23%
Luton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
76%
Derby 2+ goals
41%
Derby 3+ goals
17%
Luton 1+ goals
61%
Luton 2+ goals
24%
Luton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
66%
Luton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Luton attack 0.85 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Derby scores more
48%
level
27%
Luton scores more
25%

Derby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
J. KnightDerbyDerby · F
8.0

Match Events

14'
Kal Naismith
20'
T. Lawrence↳ J. Knight
31'
F. Onyedinma← K. Naismith
31'
A. Muskwe← J. Clark
48'
F. Onyedinma
60'
J. Knight↳ T. Lawrence
65'
H. Lansbury← G. Rea
74'
C. Kazim-Richards← R. Morrison
81'
D. Williams← K. Jóźwiak
83'
E. Adebayo↳ J. Bree
88'
F. Ebosele← J. Knight
90+2'
Tom Lawrence
90+2'
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu

Possession

50%Derby

Shots

9Derby

Pass accuracy

51%Derby

Statistics

DerbyLuton
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots10
5Corners5
12Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots10
3On Target3
5Off Target5
1Blocked2
4Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
340Total Passes350
240Accurate Passes243
71%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Derby vs Luton

Derby and Luton drew 2-2 in Championship on October 19, 2021.

Goals: T. Lawrence (20'), F. Onyedinma (48'), J. Knight (60'), E. Adebayo (83').

Derby controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.