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Derby vs Luton — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Luton
Luton
M. Alli 10'
4/18/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Derby48%
×Draw27%
Luton25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.42
Luton
0.93

Derby creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 14 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Luton
1.62

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Luton-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
75%
Derby or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
52%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
24%
Luton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
76%
Derby 2+ goals
41%
Derby 3+ goals
17%
Luton 1+ goals
61%
Luton 2+ goals
24%
Luton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
66%
Luton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Luton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Luton attack 0.85 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Derby scores more
48%
level
27%
Luton scores more
25%

Derby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. McGuinnessLutonLuton · D
8.7

Match Events

10'
M. Alli
15'
K. Jackson← N. Méndez-Laing
29'
Sondre Klingen Langås
38'
Carlton Morris
68'
Millenic Alli
72'
T. Mengi← Lamine Fanne
73'
R. Burke← I. Jones
76'
K. Goudmijn← S. Langås
81'
L. Nordås← C. Morris
81'
M. Nakamba← J. Clark
90+5'
Kayden Jackson
90+3'
T. Barkhuizen← H. Armstrong
90+4'
T. Chong← M. Alli

Possession

59%Derby

Shots

14Derby

Pass accuracy

53%Derby

Statistics

DerbyLuton
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots8
1.75Expected Goals (xG)0.52
9Corners4
9Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots8
5On Target1
3Off Target5
6Blocked2
12Inside Box7
2Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
308Total Passes228
192Accurate Passes128
62%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
0.69Goals Prevented0.69
Discipline
9Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Derby 0 – 1 Luton

Luton beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on April 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Alli (10').

Derby controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.