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Luton vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Charlton
Charlton
I. Brown 53'
P. Ruddock 19'
J. Leko 7'
11/26/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton50%
×Draw26%
Charlton23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.47
Charlton
0.91

Luton creates 62% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
77%
Luton or Charlton
74%
Draw or Charlton
50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
25%
Charlton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
77%
Luton 2+ goals
43%
Luton 3+ goals
18%
Charlton 1+ goals
60%
Charlton 2+ goals
23%
Charlton 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
68%
Charlton (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Charlton attack 0.89 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more
50%
level
26%
Charlton scores more
23%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
I. BrownLutonLuton · M
8.1

Match Events

7'
J. Leko↳ M. Bonne
19'
P. Ruddock
36'
Conor Gallagher
53'
I. Brown↳ A. Shinnie
58'
A. Doughty← N. Sarr
59'
Isaiah Brown
79'
L. Bolton← R. Tunnicliffe
85'
J. Davison← B. Purrington
89'
Andrew Shinnie
90'
Daniel Potts

Possession

47%Luton

Shots

16Luton

Pass accuracy

50%Luton

Statistics

LutonCharlton
Overview
47%Possession53%
16Total Shots10
5Corners9
9Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots10
4On Target2
8Off Target5
4Blocked3
8Inside Box6
8Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
384Total Passes410
308Accurate Passes326
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Championship: Luton 2–1 Charlton

Luton beat Charlton 2-1 in Championship on November 26, 2019.

Goals: J. Leko (7'), P. Ruddock (19'), I. Brown (53').

Charlton controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.