Charlton 3–1 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Charlton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Luton

G. Lapslie 87'

L. Taylor 61' (pen), 34'

H. Cornick 36'

2/22/2020

Championship · Round 34The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton43%

×Draw27%

Luton30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.08

Charlton

1.35

Luton

1.08

Charlton creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

1.12

creates per match

0.85

1.32

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Charlton

1.12

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Charlton

1.32

Luton

1.59

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

70%

Charlton or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

20%

Luton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

74%

Charlton 2+ goals

39%

Charlton 3+ goals

15%

Luton 1+ goals

66%

Luton 2+ goals

29%

Luton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

59%

Luton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Luton attack 0.85 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more

43%

level

27%

Luton scores more

30%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Taylor

Charlton · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

34'

36'

44'

55'

G. Lapslie← A. Oshilaja

61'

L. TaylorPenalty

67'

Glen Rea

70'

G. Moncur← H. Cornick

70'

76'

79'

82'

84'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonLuton

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots9

6Corners5

10Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots9

3On Target2

5Off Target5

4Blocked2

11Inside Box3

1Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

326Total Passes352

202Accurate Passes239

62%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2