Charlton 3–1 Luton: Result & Stats | League One

Charlton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

L. Taylor 72', 54' (pen)

Vetokele 70'

H. Cornick 15'

4/13/2019

League One · Round 42The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Charlton41%

×Draw26%

Luton34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.29

Charlton

1.44

Luton

1.29

Charlton creates 12% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 44 away

1.65

creates per match

1.45

1.13

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Luton

1.45

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Luton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

66%

Charlton or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

59%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

19%

Luton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

76%

Charlton 2+ goals

42%

Charlton 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

72%

Luton 2+ goals

37%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

55%

Luton (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Luton away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Luton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Luton attack 1.45 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more

41%

level

26%

Luton scores more

34%

Charlton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

H. Cornick↳ P. Ruddock

30'

James Shea

31'

Lyle Taylor

34'

Andrew Shinnie

54'

L. TaylorPenalty

57'

Luke Berry

63'

Igor Vetokele

68'

A. Connolly← H. Cornick

70'

72'

76'

81'

81'

88'

88'

88'

D. Pratley← K. Bielik

90'

Alan Sheehan

90'

A. Dijksteel← J. Williams

Charlton

Luton

36

5

6

11

8

▼

Berry

17

A

20

7

2

10

▼

Lee

14

⚽

▼

1

20

5

23

16

21

▼

Williams

4

A

▼

Bielik

17

Aribo

24

Cullen

9

⚽2

Taylor

14

⚽A

▼

Vetokele

Manager: L. Bowyer

76'▲G. Lapslie←▼Vetokele

88'▲D. Pratley←▼K. Bielik

90'▲A. Dijksteel←▼J. Williams

Charlton substitutes

32Lapslie15Pratley2Dijksteel22Maxwell10Parker12Reeves6Pearce

Manager: M. Harford

68'▲A. Connolly←▼H. Cornick

81'▲A. Sheehan←▼L. Berry

81'▲J. Cummings←▼E. Lee

Luton substitutes

18Connolly44Sheehan23Cummings12Baptiste45Panter40Isted24Thorne

League One: Charlton 3–1 Luton

Charlton beat Luton 3-1 in League One on April 13, 2019.

Goals: H. Cornick (15'), L. Taylor (54' pen, 72'), Vetokele (70').

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Luton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Charlton 3–1 Luton