Luton 1–4 Burnley: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Burnley

T. Chong 55'

Vitinho 80'

D. O'Shea 72'

W. Odobert 37'

J. Brownhill 6'

8/12/2024

Championship · Round 1Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Luton37%

×Draw29%

Burnley33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.05

Luton

1.13

Burnley

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.37

creates per match

1.20

0.90

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Luton

1.37

Burnley

1.20

allows per match

Luton

0.90

Burnley

0.89

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Luton-0.58scores less

Burnley+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Luton or draw

67%

Luton or Burnley

71%

Draw or Burnley

63%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

15%

Burnley wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

68%

Luton 2+ goals

31%

Luton 3+ goals

11%

Burnley 1+ goals

65%

Burnley 2+ goals

28%

Burnley 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

53%

Burnley (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.90 · 14 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.37 + Burnley defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Burnley attack 1.20 + Luton defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luton scores more

37%

level

29%

Burnley scores more

33%

Luton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. O'Shea

Burnley · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

J. Brownhill↳ Lucas Pires

37'

W. Odobert↳ C. Roberts

43'

51'

55'

59'

60'

62'

66'

A. Zaroury← L. Koleosho

72'

D. O'Shea↳ Lucas Pires

80'

A. Townsend← J. Johnson

80'

Vitinho↳ L. Foster

82'

W. Weghorst← L. Foster

83'

H. Massengo← Lucas Pires

87'

P. Mpanzu← S. Baptiste

90'

L. McNally← W. Odobert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonBurnley

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots11

1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.46

5Corners4

11Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target6

2Off Target3

5Blocked2

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

402Total Passes293

340Accurate Passes232

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Championship: Luton 1–4 Burnley

Burnley beat Luton 4-1 in Championship on August 12, 2024.

Goals: J. Brownhill (6'), W. Odobert (37'), T. Chong (55'), D. O'Shea (72'), Vitinho (80').

Luton controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.

Luton vs Burnley — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Luton 1–4 Burnley