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Luton vs Burnley — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
A. Barnes 78' (pen)
2/18/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Luton36%
×Draw29%
Burnley35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.13
Burnley
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Burnley
1.28

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Burnley
0.86

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luton or draw
65%
Luton or Burnley
71%
Draw or Burnley
64%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
15%
Burnley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
68%
Luton 2+ goals
31%
Luton 3+ goals
11%
Burnley 1+ goals
67%
Burnley 2+ goals
30%
Burnley 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
51%
Burnley (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Burnley attack 1.28 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Luton scores more
36%
level
29%
Burnley scores more
35%

Luton at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. TaylorBurnleyBurnley · D
7.7

Match Events

32'
A. Doughty← C. Drameh
35'
Josh Brownhill
54'
A. Zaroury← J. Guðmunds­son
57'
C. Woodrow← C. Morris
61'
Vitinho← N. Tella
68'
A. Campbell← M. Nakamba
77'
Tom Lockyer
78'
Tom Lockyer
78'
Tom Lockyer
78'
A. BarnesPenalty
80'
Elijah Adebayo
90+2'
L. Foster← A. Zaroury

Possession

43%Luton

Shots

9Luton

Pass accuracy

47%Luton

Statistics

LutonBurnley
Overview
43%Possession57%
9Total Shots9
7Corners5
14Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots9
3On Target2
5Off Target3
1Blocked4
4Inside Box7
5Outside Box2
Passing
43%Possession57%
318Total Passes455
201Accurate Passes328
63%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Championship: Luton 0–1 Burnley

Burnley beat Luton 1-0 in Championship on February 18, 2023.

Goals: A. Barnes (78' pen).

Burnley controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.