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Burnley vs Luton — Championship 2018

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Luton
Luton
J. Brownhill 50'
D. Potts 5'
8/6/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Burnley54%
×Draw27%
Luton20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.46
Luton
0.77

Burnley creates 90% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.32
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Burnley
0.68
Luton
1.59

finishing

Burnley+0.29scores more
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
80%
Burnley or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
46%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
27%
Luton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
77%
Burnley 2+ goals
43%
Burnley 3+ goals
18%
Luton 1+ goals
54%
Luton 2+ goals
18%
Luton 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
73%
Luton (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 18 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.32 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Luton attack 0.85 + Burnley defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Burnley scores more
54%
level
27%
Luton scores more
20%

Burnley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. BrownhillBurnleyBurnley · M
7.9

Match Events

5'
D. Potts↳ L. Freeman
46'
B. Manuel← S. Bastien
50'
J. Brownhill↳ A. Barnes
59'
C. Morris← H. Cornick
66'
Carlton Morris
67'
C. Woodrow← L. Freeman
67'
R. Burke← A. Campbell
82'
Vitinho← D. Costelloe
84'
H. Lansbury← G. Osho
89'
Ashley Barnes
90+5'
Connor Roberts

Possession

71%Burnley

Shots

12Burnley

Pass accuracy

59%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyLuton
Overview
71%Possession29%
12Total Shots13
11Corners2
10Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots13
1On Target2
6Off Target3
5Blocked8
5Inside Box9
7Outside Box4
Passing
71%Possession29%
594Total Passes246
487Accurate Passes140
82%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Championship: Burnley 1–1 Luton

Burnley and Luton drew 1-1 in Championship on August 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Potts (5'), J. Brownhill (50').

Burnley controlled possession (71%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.