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Luton vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
7/30/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Birmingham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.38
Birmingham
0.94

Luton creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
23%
Birmingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
75%
Luton 2+ goals
40%
Luton 3+ goals
16%
Birmingham 1+ goals
61%
Birmingham 2+ goals
24%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
65%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.37 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Birmingham attack 0.95 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. RuddyBirminghamBirmingham · G
7.9

Match Events

35'
Juninho Bacuna
50'
Dion Sanderson
69'
C. Woodrow← L. Freeman
70'
H. Cornick← C. Morris
78'
L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney
83'
J. Graham← P. Płacheta
84'
C. Jerome← E. Adebayo
90+3'
Ryan Woods

Possession

53%Luton

Shots

14Luton

Pass accuracy

52%Luton

Statistics

LutonBirmingham
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots12
9Corners6
7Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots12
4On Target3
6Off Target6
4Blocked3
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
340Total Passes308
244Accurate Passes203
72%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Championship: Luton 0–0 Birmingham

Luton and Birmingham drew 0-0 in Championship on July 30, 2022.

Luton controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.