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Luton vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Birmingham
Birmingham
C. Aneke 88'
G. Gardner 84'
S. Hogan 47', 26'
M. Roberts 7'
8/21/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Birmingham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.38
Birmingham
0.94

Luton creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
23%
Birmingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
75%
Luton 2+ goals
40%
Luton 3+ goals
16%
Birmingham 1+ goals
61%
Birmingham 2+ goals
24%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
65%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.37 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Birmingham attack 0.95 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. RobertsBirminghamBirmingham · D
8.7

Match Events

4'
Marc Roberts
7'
M. Roberts↳ Jérémie Bela
26'
S. Hogan↳ T. Chong
28'
G. Rea← P. Kioso
34'
Glen Rea
46'
F. Onyedinma← A. Campbell
47'
S. Hogan
57'
C. Jerome← H. Cornick
61'
C. Aneke← S. Hogan
70'
Iván Sánchez← T. Chong
81'
G. Gardner← L. Jutkiewicz
84'
G. Gardner↳ M. Colin
88'
C. Aneke

Possession

47%Luton

Shots

11Luton

Pass accuracy

47%Luton

Statistics

LutonBirmingham
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots20
5Corners5
10Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots20
3On Target9
5Off Target8
3Blocked3
9Inside Box16
2Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
355Total Passes396
218Accurate Passes275
61%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Luton vs Birmingham

Birmingham beat Luton 5-0 in Championship on August 21, 2021.

Goals: M. Roberts (7'), S. Hogan (26', 47'), G. Gardner (84'), C. Aneke (88').

Birmingham controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.