Birmingham 0–1 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Birmingham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

C. Morris 47'

2/25/2023

Championship · Round 34St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Birmingham53%

×Draw25%

Luton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.92

Birmingham

1.60

Luton

0.92

Birmingham creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

1.62

creates per match

0.85

0.99

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

Luton

1.59

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

78%

Birmingham or Luton

75%

Draw or Luton

47%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

28%

Luton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

80%

Birmingham 2+ goals

47%

Birmingham 3+ goals

22%

Luton 1+ goals

60%

Luton 2+ goals

23%

Luton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

71%

Luton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Luton attack 0.85 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Birmingham scores more

53%

level

25%

Luton scores more

22%

Birmingham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Drameh

Luton · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

Alfie Doughty

47'

C. Morris↳ A. Doughty

55'

A. Campbell← R. Burke

64'

A. Chang← H. Mejbri

64'

J. Bacuna← G. Gardner

64'

M. Roberts← G. Hall

67'

Marc Roberts

73'

C. Woodrow← C. Morris

86'

J. Graham← M. Emmanuel

90+2'

J. James← H. Dean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamLuton

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots11

2Corners7

11Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots11

0On Target5

2Off Target3

6Blocked3

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

295Total Passes341

155Accurate Passes202

53%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0