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Luton vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
M. Pearson 37'
L. Jutkiewicz 23' (pen)
11/24/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Birmingham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.38
Birmingham
0.95

Luton creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Birmingham
0.96

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Birmingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
75%
Luton 2+ goals
40%
Luton 3+ goals
16%
Birmingham 1+ goals
61%
Birmingham 2+ goals
25%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Birmingham attack 0.96 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
N. EtheridgeBirminghamBirmingham · G
7.9

Match Events

23'
L. JutkiewiczPenalty
37'
M. Pearson↳ G. Rea
48'
Harlee Dean
60'
Iván Sánchez← G. Gardner
61'
G. Moncur← E. Lee
70'
J. Clark← H. Cornick
73'
Glen Rea
75'
R. McGree← J. Clarke-Salter
75'
Jérémie Bela← S. Hogan

Possession

57%Luton

Shots

16Luton

Pass accuracy

52%Luton

Statistics

LutonBirmingham
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots11
8Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots11
7On Target3
4Off Target6
5Blocked2
7Inside Box9
9Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
527Total Passes392
438Accurate Passes300
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Luton vs Birmingham

Luton and Birmingham drew 1-1 in Championship on November 24, 2020.

Goals: L. Jutkiewicz (23' pen), M. Pearson (37').

Luton controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.