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Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2018

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
Preview
18:15
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
7/18/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Huvepharma Arena
Big match
60%
Ludogorets
model favours
60%22%17%

Ludogorets are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Ludogorets60%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.84
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.86

Ludogorets creates 114% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 136 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.38
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.15

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.31

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
83%
Ludogorets or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
40%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
35%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
84%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
55%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
21%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
78%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ludogorets scores more
60%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
17%

Ludogorets at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ludogorets
WWDW
Plovdiv
WWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ludogorets face Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League)

First League returns with Ludogorets hosting Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ludogorets host Lokomotiv Plovdiv at Huvepharma Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.