Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ludogorets

C. Itu 6'

P. Stanic 90'

9/14/2025

First League · Round 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv29%

×Draw27%

Ludogorets44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.39

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.08

Ludogorets

1.39

Ludogorets creates 29% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 133 away

1.34

creates per match

1.83

0.94

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.34

Ludogorets

1.83

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.94

Ludogorets

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

56%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Ludogorets

73%

Draw or Ludogorets

71%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

11%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

66%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

29%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

10%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

75%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

40%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

40%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

29%

level

27%

Ludogorets scores more

44%

Ludogorets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

22'

32'

33'

44'

46'

G. Touma← C. Itu

46'

E. Bile← B. Tekpetey

46'

Erick Marcus← Pedro Naressi

58'

A. Chindris← Lucas Ryan

65'

P. Stanic← Son

65'

D. Duarte← I. Chochev

73'

M. Atanasov← E. Ali

73'

J. Perea← D. Iliev

80'

J. Andersson← I. Nachmias

83'

90+12'

90+1'

90+12'

90'

Lokomotiv

Ludogorets

1

Padt

55

▼

Nachmias

15

Kurtulus

4

Almeida

17

▼

Son

30

▼

Naressi

37

▼

Tekpetey

18

▼

26

11

10

1

2

23

13

▼

Ryan

21

Espinoza

22

Ivanov

12

▼

Ali

94

⚽

▼

Itu

39

A

Umarbaev

99

▼

Lamy

14

▼

Iliev

46'▲G. Touma←▼C. Itu

58'▲A. Chindris←▼Lucas Ryan

73'▲M. Atanasov←▼E. Ali

73'▲J. Perea←▼D. Iliev

83'▲P. Andreev←▼J. Lamy

Lokomotiv Plovdiv substitutes

40Zovko44Nikolaev4Chindris33Atanasov7Markov19Velev11Andreev9Perea10Touma

46'▲E. Bile←▼B. Tekpetey

46'▲Erick Marcus←▼Pedro Naressi

65'▲P. Stanic←▼Son

65'▲D. Duarte←▼I. Chochev

80'▲J. Andersson←▼I. Nachmias

Ludogorets substitutes

39Bonmann2Andersson14Stanic23Duarte24Verdon29Bile42Shishkov77Marcus99Ivanov

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets drew 1-1 in First League on September 14, 2025.

Goals: C. Itu (6'), P. Stanic (90').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets