Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ludogorets

J. Lamy 12' (pen)

3/30/2025

First League · Round 26Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv29%

×Draw27%

Ludogorets44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.39

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.08

Ludogorets

1.39

Ludogorets creates 29% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 133 away

1.34

creates per match

1.83

0.94

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.34

Ludogorets

1.83

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.94

Ludogorets

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

56%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Ludogorets

73%

Draw or Ludogorets

71%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

11%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

66%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

29%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

10%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

75%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

40%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

40%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

29%

level

27%

Ludogorets scores more

44%

Ludogorets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Caio Vidal

Ludogorets · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Deroy Duarte← Pedro Naressi

12'

J. LamyPenalty

34'

39'

43'

52'

59'

I. Chochev← T. Nedelev

60'

A. Witry← A. Nedyalkov

60'

Erick Marcus← G. Rusev

63'

L. Bizjak← V. Medved

75'

Patryk Stępiński

76'

E. Bille← Deroy Duarte

79'

Diogo Abreu← K. Kostov

80'

M. Petkov← P. Umarbayev

80'

K. Banev← J. Lamy

86'

Juan Perea

86'

Juan Perea

90+7'

Lovro Bizyak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivLudogorets

Overview

25%Possession75%

8Total Shots16

1.70Expected Goals (xG)2.01

3Corners7

24Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots16

4On Target1

3Off Target10

0Blocked3

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box8

Passing

25%Possession75%

193Total Passes530

115Accurate Passes444

60%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

24Fouls9

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

First League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Ludogorets

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Ludogorets 1-0 in First League on March 30, 2025.

Goals: J. Lamy (12' pen).

Ludogorets controlled possession (75%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

First League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Ludogorets