Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Rick 84'

10/6/2024

First League · Round 11Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Ludogorets60%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.86

Ludogorets

1.84

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.86

Ludogorets creates 114% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 136 away

2.38

creates per match

1.15

0.57

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ludogorets

2.38

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.15

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.57

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

83%

Ludogorets or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

40%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

35%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

84%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

55%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

58%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

21%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

78%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ludogorets scores more

60%

level

22%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

17%

Ludogorets at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Rick

Ludogorets · M

8.9

Match Events

17'

Georgi Karakashev

29'

Angel Lyaskov

52'

Aguibou Camara

56'

I. Chochev← A. Camara

71'

Caio Vidal← Erick Marcus

71'

Rwan Cruz← K. Duah

72'

K. Peshov← Marcílio

72'

M. Haydarov← G. Karakashev

75'

79'

81'

82'

84'

90'

90+3'

90'

90'

Pedro Naressi← J. Piotrowski

90'

E. Ali← H. Ivanov

90'

I. Ivanov← D. Iliev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LudogoretsLokomotiv

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots3

1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.20

9Corners0

9Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots3

7On Target0

5Off Target2

6Blocked1

13Inside Box1

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

440Total Passes277

364Accurate Passes209

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0

First League: Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Ludogorets beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 in First League on October 6, 2024.

Goals: Rick (84').

Ludogorets controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 3.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.

Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

First League: Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv