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Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
4 – 0
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
5/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ludogorets54%
×Draw22%
Dunav Ruse24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.96
Dunav Ruse
1.23

Ludogorets creates 59% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.18
Dunav Ruse
1.36

allows per match

Ludogorets
1.09
Dunav Ruse
1.73

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
76%
Ludogorets or Dunav Ruse
78%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
46%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
31%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
86%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
58%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
31%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
71%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
35%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
69%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.18 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dunav Ruse attack 1.36 + Ludogorets defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ludogorets scores more
54%
level
22%
Dunav Ruse scores more
24%

Ludogorets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse

Ludogorets beat Dunav Ruse 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on May 29, 2020.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.