Dunav Ruse 0–1 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Dunav Ruse

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ludogorets

C. Keșerü 23'

9/29/2019

First League · Round 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunav Ruse21%

×Draw25%

Ludogorets54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav RuseExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.62

Dunav Ruse

0.92

Ludogorets

1.62

Ludogorets creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 131 away

1.00

creates per match

1.81

1.43

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Dunav Ruse

1.00

Ludogorets

1.81

allows per match

Dunav Ruse

1.43

Ludogorets

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw

46%

Dunav Ruse or Ludogorets

75%

Draw or Ludogorets

79%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

7%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

60%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

23%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

7%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

80%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

48%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

28%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.00 + Ludogorets defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Ludogorets attack 1.81 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more

21%

level

25%

Ludogorets scores more

54%

Ludogorets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Rosen Kolev

23'

C. Keșerü

56'

Anton Nedyalkov

58'

J. Góralski← Marcelinho

62'

M. Kostadinov← S. Shterev

70'

Jorginho← J. Lukoki

75'

Fernando Henrique← D. Dimov

75'

M. Tchibota← C. Keșerü

82'

Samir Ayass← L. Nikolov

89'

Samuel Inkoom

90'

Jacek Góralski

90'

Stanislav Manolev

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DunavLudogorets

Overview

37%Possession63%

4Total Shots8

1Corners8

15Fouls15

Shots

4Total Shots8

0On Target4

4Off Target4

Passing

37%Possession63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5