Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse — First League 2026

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
C. Keșerü 53', 51'
J. Lukoki 26'
I. Kokonov 77'
9/2/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Ludogorets Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ludogorets71%
×Draw18%
Dunav Ruse11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
2.28
Dunav Ruse
0.79

Ludogorets creates 189% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.39
Dunav Ruse
1.00

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.58
Dunav Ruse
2.17

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
89%
Ludogorets or Dunav Ruse
82%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
29%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
47%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
90%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
66%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
39%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
55%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
19%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
86%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.58 · 132 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.39 + Dunav Ruse defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.28

Dunav Ruse attack 1.00 + Ludogorets defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ludogorets scores more
71%
level
18%
Dunav Ruse scores more
11%

Ludogorets at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
J. Lukoki
51'
C. Keșerü
53'
C. Keșerü
77'
I. Kokonov

Possession

67%Ludogorets

Shots

11Ludogorets

Statistics

LudogoretsDunav
Overview
67%Possession33%
11Total Shots5
10Corners0
10Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots5
7On Target1
4Off Target4
Passing
67%Possession33%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls14
0Red Cards0
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse

Ludogorets beat Dunav Ruse 3-1 in First League on September 2, 2018.

Goals: J. Lukoki (26'), C. Keșerü (51', 53'), I. Kokonov (77').

Ludogorets controlled possession (67%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ludogorets Arena in Razgrad.