Loznica 2–0 Borac Cacak: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Loznica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Borac Cacak

10/24/2025

Prva Liga · Round 15Lagator Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Loznica48%

×Draw26%

Borac Cacak26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoznicaExpected goals in this matchBorac Cacak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Loznica

1.52

Borac Cacak

1.04

Loznica creates 46% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

1.54

creates per match

1.01

1.07

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Loznica

1.54

Borac Cacak

1.01

allows per match

Loznica

1.07

Borac Cacak

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loznica+0.00on par

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loznica ↓

Borac Cacak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Loznica or draw

74%

Loznica or Borac Cacak

74%

Draw or Borac Cacak

52%

Winning margin

Loznica wins by 2+

24%

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Loznica 1+ goals

78%

Loznica 2+ goals

45%

Loznica 3+ goals

20%

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

65%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

28%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Loznica (draw refunded)

65%

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loznica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loznica attack 1.54 + Borac Cacak defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Borac Cacak attack 1.01 + Loznica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Loznica scores more

48%

level

26%

Borac Cacak scores more

26%

Loznica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff