Borac Cacak 4–1 Loznica: Result & Stats

Borac Cacak

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Loznica

11/11/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 13Stadion Borca kraj Morave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Borac Cacak61%

×Draw22%

Loznica16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac CacakExpected goals in this matchLoznica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.84

Borac Cacak

1.86

Loznica

0.84

Borac Cacak creates 121% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

2.49

creates per match

1.08

0.60

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Borac Cacak

2.49

Loznica

1.08

allows per match

Borac Cacak

0.60

Loznica

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

Loznica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw

84%

Borac Cacak or Loznica

78%

Draw or Loznica

39%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

36%

Loznica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

84%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

55%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

28%

Loznica 1+ goals

57%

Loznica 2+ goals

21%

Loznica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

79%

Loznica (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.60 · 55 matches

Loznica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 2.49 + Loznica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Loznica attack 1.08 + Borac Cacak defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Borac Cacak scores more

61%

level

22%

Loznica scores more

16%

Borac Cacak at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff