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Borac Cacak vs Loznica — Prva Liga 2018

Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Loznica
Loznica
5/9/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 32Stadion Borca kraj Morave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Borac Cacak44%
×Draw30%
Loznica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Cacak
1.17
Loznica
0.83

Borac Cacak creates 41% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Borac Cacak
1.18
Loznica
0.78

allows per match

Borac Cacak
0.88
Loznica
1.16

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par
Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

Loznica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw
74%
Borac Cacak or Loznica
70%
Draw or Loznica
56%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+
19%
Loznica wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals
69%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
33%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
11%
Loznica 1+ goals
56%
Loznica 2+ goals
20%
Loznica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
63%
Loznica (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 73 matches

Loznica away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 1.18 + Loznica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Loznica attack 0.78 + Borac Cacak defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Borac Cacak scores more
44%
level
30%
Loznica scores more
26%

Borac Cacak at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Borac Cacak 0–1 Loznica

Loznica beat Borac Cacak 1-0 in Prva Liga on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borca kraj Morave in Čačak.