Louny 4–0 Dobříš: Result & Stats

Louny

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dobříš

5/27/2022

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 27Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Louny61%

×Draw19%

Dobříš20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LounyExpected goals in this matchDobříš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.40

Louny

2.51

Dobříš

1.40

Louny creates 79% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 24 away

1.60

creates per match

0.96

1.84

allows per match

3.42

creates per match

Louny

1.60

Dobříš

0.96

allows per match

Louny

1.84

Dobříš

3.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louny+0.00on par

Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louny ↓

Dobříš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Louny or draw

80%

Louny or Dobříš

81%

Draw or Dobříš

39%

Winning margin

Louny wins by 2+

40%

Dobříš wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Louny 1+ goals

92%

Louny 2+ goals

71%

Louny 3+ goals

45%

Dobříš 1+ goals

75%

Dobříš 2+ goals

41%

Dobříš 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Louny (draw refunded)

75%

Dobříš (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louny at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louny attack 1.60 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.51

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Louny defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Louny scores more

61%

level

19%

Dobříš scores more

20%

Louny at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff