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Louny vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Louny
Louny
CANC
15:00
Dobříš
Dobříš
6/5/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 27Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Louny61%
×Draw19%
Dobříš20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louny
2.51
Dobříš
1.40

Louny creates 79% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 24 away

creates per match

Louny
1.60
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Louny
1.84
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Louny+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louny ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Louny or draw
80%
Louny or Dobříš
81%
Draw or Dobříš
39%

Winning margin

Louny wins by 2+
40%
Dobříš wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Louny 1+ goals
92%
Louny 2+ goals
71%
Louny 3+ goals
45%
Dobříš 1+ goals
75%
Dobříš 2+ goals
41%
Dobříš 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Louny (draw refunded)
75%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louny at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louny attack 1.60 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.51

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Louny defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Louny scores more
61%
level
19%
Dobříš scores more
20%

Louny at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Louny vs Dobříš — Match Preview

Louny face Dobříš on June 5, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Louny host Dobříš at Městský stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.