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Dobříš vs Louny — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
Pens
1 – 1
Louny
Louny
10/26/20194. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 12UMT Dobříš (Dobříš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš43%
×Draw22%
Louny34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.83
Louny
1.60

Dobříš creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 70 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Louny
1.16

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Louny
2.04

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Louny+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Louny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
66%
Dobříš or Louny
78%
Draw or Louny
57%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
23%
Louny wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
84%
Dobříš 2+ goals
54%
Dobříš 3+ goals
28%
Louny 1+ goals
80%
Louny 2+ goals
47%
Louny 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
56%
Louny (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Louny away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Louny defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Louny attack 1.16 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dobříš scores more
43%
level
22%
Louny scores more
34%

Dobříš at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dobříš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobříš vs Louny

Dobříš and Louny drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at UMT Dobříš (Dobříš).