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Loughgall vs Dungannon Swifts — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Loughgall
Loughgall
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
H. Norton 78'
Unknown 88', 67', 51'
K. Dillon 25'
7/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Loughgall10%
×Draw13%
Dungannon Swifts76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loughgall
1.13
Dungannon Swifts
3.17

Dungannon Swifts creates 181% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Loughgall
1.00
Dungannon Swifts
3.00

allows per match

Loughgall
3.33
Dungannon Swifts
1.25

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par
Dungannon Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

Dungannon Swifts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw
24%
Loughgall or Dungannon Swifts
87%
Draw or Dungannon Swifts
90%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+
4%
Dungannon Swifts wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals
68%
Loughgall 2+ goals
31%
Loughgall 3+ goals
11%
Dungannon Swifts 1+ goals
96%
Dungannon Swifts 2+ goals
82%
Dungannon Swifts 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)
12%
Dungannon Swifts (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Dungannon Swifts away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.00 + Dungannon Swifts defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dungannon Swifts attack 3.00 + Loughgall defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Loughgall scores more
10%
level
13%
Dungannon Swifts scores more
76%

Dungannon Swifts at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
K. Dillon
51'
67'
78'
H. Norton
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loughgall vs Dungannon Swifts

Dungannon Swifts beat Loughgall 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 21, 2026.

Goals: K. Dillon (25'), ? (51', 67', 88'), H. Norton (78').