Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dungannon Swifts vs Loughgall — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Loughgall
Loughgall
A. Mitchell 82'
S. McAllister 33'
J. Gibson 43'
7/10/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dungannon Swifts65%
×Draw17%
Loughgall18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dungannon Swifts
2.80
Loughgall
1.45

Dungannon Swifts creates 93% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dungannon Swifts
3.60
Loughgall
2.50

allows per match

Dungannon Swifts
0.40
Loughgall
2.00

finishing

Dungannon Swifts+0.00on par
Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dungannon Swifts ↓

Loughgall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dungannon Swifts or draw
82%
Dungannon Swifts or Loughgall
83%
Draw or Loughgall
35%

Winning margin

Dungannon Swifts wins by 2+
44%
Loughgall wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dungannon Swifts 1+ goals
94%
Dungannon Swifts 2+ goals
76%
Dungannon Swifts 3+ goals
52%
Loughgall 1+ goals
77%
Loughgall 2+ goals
42%
Loughgall 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dungannon Swifts (draw refunded)
78%
Loughgall (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dungannon Swifts at home — creates 3.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Loughgall away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dungannon Swifts attack 3.60 + Loughgall defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Loughgall attack 2.50 + Dungannon Swifts defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dungannon Swifts scores more
65%
level
17%
Loughgall scores more
18%

Dungannon Swifts at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
S. McAllister
43'
J. Gibson
82'
A. Mitchell
Dungannon
Loughgall
Rodney Joseph McAree
Manager: Rodney Joseph McAree
D. Murphy
Manager: D. Murphy

Match Recap: Dungannon Swifts vs Loughgall

Dungannon Swifts beat Loughgall 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2025.

Goals: S. McAllister (33'), J. Gibson (43'), A. Mitchell (82').