Dungannon Swifts 1–3 Loughgall: Result & Stats

Dungannon Swifts

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Loughgall

A. Mitchell 29'

R. Norton 77'

R. Waide 60', 57'

10/26/2024

League #408 · Round 14Stangmore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dungannon Swifts48%

×Draw24%

Loughgall29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dungannon SwiftsExpected goals in this matchLoughgall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

Dungannon Swifts

1.71

Loughgall

1.27

Dungannon Swifts creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dungannon Swifts

1.75

Loughgall

1.17

allows per match

Dungannon Swifts

1.38

Loughgall

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dungannon Swifts+0.00on par

Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dungannon Swifts ↓

Loughgall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dungannon Swifts or draw

71%

Dungannon Swifts or Loughgall

76%

Draw or Loughgall

52%

Winning margin

Dungannon Swifts wins by 2+

25%

Loughgall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dungannon Swifts 1+ goals

82%

Dungannon Swifts 2+ goals

51%

Dungannon Swifts 3+ goals

24%

Loughgall 1+ goals

72%

Loughgall 2+ goals

36%

Loughgall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dungannon Swifts (draw refunded)

63%

Loughgall (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dungannon Swifts at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Loughgall away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dungannon Swifts attack 1.75 + Loughgall defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Loughgall attack 1.17 + Dungannon Swifts defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dungannon Swifts scores more

48%

level

24%

Loughgall scores more

29%

Dungannon Swifts at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

29'

37'

45+1'

45+1'

51'

57'

60'

J. Knowles← K. Dillon

60'

Leonel Alves← B. McAleese

60'

71'

77'

77'

78'

82'

C. McAleer← N. Ferris

82'

C. Kerr← C. McDermott

83'

L. Cartwright

85'

L. Boyd← D. King

86'

Dungannon

Loughgall

31

Gartside

29

McCloskey

3

Rea

2

▼

McDermott

15

Cartwrigh

12

⚽

Norton

6

Kelly

19

Francis

9

▼

Ferris

8

⚽2

▼

Waide

13

▼

Gibson

16

Grogan

6

▼

King

23

Wallace

34

Bigiriman

10

▼

Dillon

22

▼

McAleese

2

▼

Scott

26

⚽

19

9

14

Manager: R. McAree

60'▲J. Knowles←▼K. Dillon

60'▲Leonel Alves←▼B. McAleese

78'▲T. Galvin←▼S. Scott

85'▲L. Boyd←▼D. King

Dungannon Swifts substitutes

8Knowles13Alves18Galvin11Boyd1Dunne3Scott4Curry

Manager: D. Smith

71'▲A. Baldé←▼R. Waide

77'▲A. Towe←▼J. Gibson

82'▲C. McAleer←▼N. Ferris

82'▲C. Kerr←▼C. McDermott

Loughgall substitutes

18Baldé27Towe11McAleer14Kerr1Turker4Murdock26Harvey