Loughgall 1–2 Dungannon Swifts: Result & Stats

Loughgall

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dungannon Swifts

B. Magee 90+3'

M. Lusty 75', 13'

11/25/2023

League #408 · Round 18Lakeview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Loughgall29%

×Draw25%

Dungannon Swifts46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoughgallExpected goals in this matchDungannon Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.55

Loughgall

1.19

Dungannon Swifts

1.55

Dungannon Swifts creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

1.60

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Loughgall

1.00

Dungannon Swifts

1.50

allows per match

Loughgall

1.60

Dungannon Swifts

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par

Dungannon Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

Dungannon Swifts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw

54%

Loughgall or Dungannon Swifts

75%

Draw or Dungannon Swifts

71%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+

12%

Dungannon Swifts wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals

70%

Loughgall 2+ goals

33%

Loughgall 3+ goals

12%

Dungannon Swifts 1+ goals

79%

Dungannon Swifts 2+ goals

46%

Dungannon Swifts 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)

39%

Dungannon Swifts (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Dungannon Swifts away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.00 + Dungannon Swifts defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dungannon Swifts attack 1.50 + Loughgall defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Loughgall scores more

29%

level

25%

Dungannon Swifts scores more

46%

Dungannon Swifts at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

13'

22'

24'

34'

38'

41'

41'

61'

61'

B. Gallagher← Leonel Alves

75'

B. Magee← O. Brogan

75'

M. Lusty

80'

J. Knowles← M. Lusty

80'

G. Hutchinson← K. Dillon

85'

N. Ferris← L. Cartwright

85'

A. Duke← J. Boyd

90+3'

B. Magee

Loughgall

Dungannon

18

4

5

17

34

10

▼

Dillon

2

McGee

50

▼

Galvin

23

▼

Alves

14

Glenny

20

⚽2

▼

20

23

3

4

5

▼

Brogan

15

▼

7

6

8

13

22

▼

Boyd

Manager: D. Smith

75'▲B. Magee←▼O. Brogan

85'▲N. Ferris←▼L. Cartwright

85'▲A. Duke←▼J. Boyd

Loughgall substitutes

21Magee9Ferris24Duke1Turker2Carson10Hoey14Patton

Manager: R. McAree

61'▲S. Scott←▼T. Galvin

61'▲B. Gallagher←▼Leonel Alves

80'▲J. Knowles←▼M. Lusty

80'▲G. Hutchinson←▼K. Dillon

Dungannon Swifts substitutes

12Scott15Gallagher8Knowles21Hutchinson1Dunne3Scott9Devine