Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

America de Cali vs Leones FC — Primera B 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leones FC
Leones FC
8/3/2016Primera BPrimera B · Round 21Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

America de Cali61%
×Draw21%
Leones FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
2.01
Leones FC
0.98

America de Cali creates 105% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 127 away

creates per match

America de Cali
2.33
Leones FC
1.28

allows per match

America de Cali
0.67
Leones FC
1.69

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
82%
America de Cali or Leones FC
79%
Draw or Leones FC
39%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
37%
Leones FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
87%
America de Cali 2+ goals
59%
America de Cali 3+ goals
32%
Leones FC 1+ goals
62%
Leones FC 2+ goals
26%
Leones FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
77%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 2.33 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.01

Leones FC attack 1.28 + America de Cali defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

America de Cali scores more
61%
level
21%
Leones FC scores more
18%

America de Cali at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Primera B: America de Cali 2–0 Leones FC

America de Cali beat Leones FC 2-0 in Primera B on August 3, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali).