America de Cali 1–0 Leones FC: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leones FC

B. Angulo 67' (pen)

7/25/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 1Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

America de Cali55%

×Draw26%

Leones FC18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.73

America de Cali

1.48

Leones FC

0.73

America de Cali creates 103% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 17 away

1.49

creates per match

0.71

0.76

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

America de Cali

1.49

Leones FC

0.71

allows per match

America de Cali

0.76

Leones FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

82%

America de Cali or Leones FC

74%

Draw or Leones FC

45%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

28%

Leones FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

77%

America de Cali 2+ goals

43%

America de Cali 3+ goals

19%

Leones FC 1+ goals

52%

Leones FC 2+ goals

17%

Leones FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

75%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 188 matches

Leones FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Leones FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Leones FC attack 0.71 + America de Cali defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

America de Cali scores more

55%

level

26%

Leones FC scores more

18%

America de Cali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Cadavid

Leones FC · G

7.8

Match Events

27'

Alejandro Bernal

40'

Kevin Rendón

46'

D. Mosquera← K. Rendón

56'

58'

64'

65'

67'

B. AnguloPenalty

73'

Y. Zabaleta← A. Angulo

81'

83'

84'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaLeones

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots8

14Corners3

14Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target3

5Off Target4

5Blocked1

10Inside Box2

7Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

500Total Passes364

426Accurate Passes304

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2