Leones FC 1–2 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Leones FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

America de Cali

J. Medina 27'

D. Arboleda 65'

C. Martínez 15'

2/3/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leones FC32%

×Draw30%

America de Cali38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones FCExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.11

Leones FC

0.98

America de Cali

1.11

America de Cali creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 189 away

0.71

creates per match

1.05

1.18

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Leones FC

0.71

America de Cali

1.05

allows per match

Leones FC

1.18

America de Cali

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw

62%

Leones FC or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

68%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+

12%

America de Cali wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals

62%

Leones FC 2+ goals

26%

Leones FC 3+ goals

8%

America de Cali 1+ goals

67%

America de Cali 2+ goals

30%

America de Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)

45%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 0.71 + America de Cali defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

America de Cali attack 1.05 + Leones FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leones FC scores more

32%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

38%

America de Cali at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Cadavid

Leones FC · G

7.8

Match Events

15'

C. Martínez

21'

J. Ramírez← Y. Zabaleta

24'

Elkin Blanco

27'

J. Medina↳ J. Sánchez

41'

Juan Pablo Ramírez

46'

J. Mosquera← E. Blanco

56'

D. Bottinelli← Y. Rivera

65'

D. Arboleda↳ D. Herner

71'

E. Espinosa← W. Cruz

79'

C. Serna← J. Ramírez

80'

Jonny Mosquera

90+1'

H. Canchimbo← C. Valencia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonesAmerica

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots21

2Corners7

12Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots21

1On Target9

7Off Target5

1Blocked7

3Inside Box10

6Outside Box11

Passing

53%Possession47%

368Total Passes324

300Accurate Passes240

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2