Lorient 3–2 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Lorient

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Clermont Foot

P. Pagis 59'

E. Kroupi 30' (pen)

J. Laporte 24'

M. Bassouamina 90+4'

J. Jacquet 12'

1/25/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Lorient52%

×Draw25%

Clermont Foot23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.97

Lorient

1.59

Clermont Foot

0.97

Lorient creates 64% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 98 away

2.02

creates per match

0.99

0.95

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Lorient

2.02

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Lorient

0.95

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorient+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

77%

Lorient or Clermont Foot

75%

Draw or Clermont Foot

48%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

27%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

80%

Lorient 2+ goals

47%

Lorient 3+ goals

21%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

62%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

25%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

69%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 2.02 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.59

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Lorient defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lorient scores more

52%

level

25%

Clermont Foot scores more

23%

Lorient at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Laporte

Lorient · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

24'

28'

28'

30'

E. KroupiPenalty

59'

P. Pagis↳ J. Makengo

71'

P. Katseris← J. Mvuka

72'

G. Kalulu← Igor Silva

72'

S. Soumano← E. Kroupi

72'

K. Bamba← Y. Diaby

73'

Y. Armougom← B. Diallo

82'

T. Le Bris← P. Pagis

86'

M. Baaloudj← M. Douane

86'

I. M'Bahia← C. Konaté

90+9'

Jérémy Jacquet

90+9'

E. Genton← J. Makengo

90+4'

M. Bassouamina↳ K. Bamba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientClermont

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots12

9Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target5

5Off Target2

5Blocked5

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

445Total Passes424

370Accurate Passes353

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2