Clermont Foot 2–1 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Clermont Foot

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lorient

M. Douane 76'

D. Da Silva 45'

A. Tosin 81' (pen)

11/1/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Clermont Foot36%

×Draw27%

Lorient36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

Clermont Foot

1.23

Lorient

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 43 away

1.31

creates per match

1.42

1.03

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.31

Lorient

1.42

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.03

Lorient

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

64%

Clermont Foot or Lorient

73%

Draw or Lorient

64%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

16%

Lorient wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

71%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

35%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

13%

Lorient 1+ goals

71%

Lorient 2+ goals

35%

Lorient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

50%

Lorient (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Lorient defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lorient attack 1.42 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

36%

level

27%

Lorient scores more

36%

Clermont Foot at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Saivet

Clermont Foot · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

20'

24'

44'

45'

D. Da Silva↳ J. Jacquet

61'

P. Pagis← J. Mvuka

62'

O. Diop← M. Bassouamina

62'

M. Bamba← S. Soumano

69'

A. Ackra← H. Keïta

69'

M. Baaloudj← F. Diédhiou

73'

76'

78'

78'

80'

81'

Y. Armougom← M. Douane

81'

A. TosinPenalty

82'

Y. Magnin← H. Saivet

90+4'

Yoël Armougom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontLorient

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots10

2Corners8

9Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target2

4Off Target4

4Blocked4

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

414Total Passes518

331Accurate Passes442

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 2–1 Lorient

Clermont Foot beat Lorient 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 1, 2024.

Goals: D. Da Silva (45'), M. Douane (76'), A. Tosin (81' pen).

Lorient controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.

Clermont Foot vs Lorient — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 2–1 Lorient