Clermont Foot 0–2 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Clermont Foot

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lorient

L. Pétrot 76'

I. Koné 72'

3/13/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Clermont Foot47%

×Draw26%

Lorient27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.09

Clermont Foot

1.53

Lorient

1.09

Clermont Foot creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

1.37

creates per match

1.01

1.17

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.37

Lorient

1.01

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.17

Lorient

1.69

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Clermont Foot-0.37scores less

Lorient-0.08on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

73%

Clermont Foot or Lorient

74%

Draw or Lorient

53%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

24%

Lorient wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

78%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

45%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

20%

Lorient 1+ goals

66%

Lorient 2+ goals

30%

Lorient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

64%

Lorient (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.17 · 10 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.37 + Lorient defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lorient attack 1.01 + Clermont Foot defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

47%

level

26%

Lorient scores more

27%

Clermont Foot at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Pétrot

Lorient · D

7.9

Match Events

49'

Johan Gastien

53'

Bonke Innocent

61'

S. Diarra← Q. Boisgard

61'

I. Koné← T. Moffi

69'

J. Allevinah← L. Da Cunha

69'

M. Bayo← G. Kyei

69'

J. Dossou← E. Rashani

72'

I. Koné

76'

L. Pétrot

83'

Ibrahima Kone

83'

S. Khaoui← J. Berthomier

86'

Dango Ouattara← A. Laurienté

90+1'

Igor Silva← E. Le Fée

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontLorient

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots9

2Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots9

1On Target6

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

512Total Passes469

417Accurate Passes370

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2