Londrina 0–0 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Londrina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America Mineiro

11/18/2017

Serie B · Round 37Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff (Londrina, Paraná)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Londrina45%

×Draw28%

America Mineiro27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.95

Londrina

1.31

America Mineiro

0.95

Londrina creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

1.33

creates per match

0.74

1.17

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Londrina

1.33

America Mineiro

0.74

allows per match

Londrina

1.17

America Mineiro

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

73%

Londrina or America Mineiro

72%

Draw or America Mineiro

55%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

21%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

73%

Londrina 2+ goals

38%

Londrina 3+ goals

14%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

61%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

25%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

62%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.33 + America Mineiro defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

America Mineiro attack 0.74 + Londrina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Londrina scores more

45%

level

28%

America Mineiro scores more

27%

Londrina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Ayrton

Londrina · D

8.0

Match Events

43'

Fernando Leal← João Ricardo

57'

Marcinho← Elias Bidia

65'

Willian← Felipe Amorim

69'

Safira← Negueba

69'

Gerson Magrão← Renan Oliveira

82'

Ricardinho← Romulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaAmerica

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots10

7Corners6

18Fouls25

Shots

20Total Shots10

6On Target3

12Off Target6

2Blocked1

15Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

324Total Passes325

238Accurate Passes227

73%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls25

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0